Adam Schiff Predicts GOP Sweep If Biden Remains Top of Ticket

Of course, the likelihood of a GOP sweep is high no matter who is on the top of the ticket.

Let's start with the obvious. After the near miss assassination attempt on Trump, his odds to win have gone up. Prior to the shooting, betting odds showed him at 55% and now he is sitting at 67%. Not much in the way of polling has come out, but Trump doesn't have to do anything other than keep his current lead to win by a fairly comfortable margin. It would be one thing is Trump was behind in the polling and needed a major event to change the landscape, but he hasn't been behind. If the assassination attempt does nothing more than solidify the voters he needs to win, then that will be enough. He doesn't have to dramatically move the larger needle (which is already in his favor).

It is the Democrats who need a major event to turn things around, and that isn't likely to happen by moving into a convention in utter chaos, trying to replace (or after replacing) an unwilling sitting President by Party elite coup. Truth is that no Democrat is polling ahead of Trump right now or would be favored to win. Replacing Biden would be a major event, but odds are that it wouldn't necessarily be seen by everyone as a good thing to rally around. There would no doubt be a lot of disappointed, if not angry, Biden supporters who would not take kindly to him being pushed out at the last minute (and we are getting into last minute area here). It's a lose lose proposition for the Democrats right now.

In the Senate, the Democrats are certain to lose Manchin's seat in West Virginia and they have no real true GOP vulnerable seats to go after. The closest that Democrats can considered vulnerable is Ted Cruz in Texas (leading by nearly eight) and Rick Scott in Florida (leading by nearly six). Meanwhile, Democrats are defending several red and purple state seats where Trump is expected to win or do well. Tester is behind in Montana polling and his seat looks like the most vulnerable other than the sure West Virginia Pickup. At worst, the GOP will hold 50-51 seats and could roll some more over if things go their way.

In the House, the GOP already has the majority and are currently ahead in the generic ballot polling, something that is somewhat unusual in a Presidential year. Generally Democrats need a fairly obvious polling lead in the generic ballot to pick up seats, whereas anything close generally ends up with the GOP winning seats. I don't have much specific race by race analysis and I doubt I will anytime soon, but it is extremely hard to win the Presidential race and then lose Congressional seats or visa versa. Democrats losing the Presidency, but still taking over the House would be a big ask.

Bottom line. Schiff is probably half right. It is likely we see a GOP sweep, but I doubt that will change if they replace Biden at the top of the ticket.