About the Iranian deal?

For starters there is no deal until there is a deal!

Let's start with the obvious. This is not a "peace deal" as so many media outlets are suggesting. It would be an expansion of the ceasefire for another 60 days, during which negotiations would continue. It's an agreement, to not come to an agreement. The concessions being made right now would be to reopen the strait and that nobody shoot at anyone. This would mean that all ships (including Iranian ships) would pass through the strait for the next 60 days. Contrary to some popular believe, the U.S. is not easing sanctions or giving up on limiting Iranian nuclear ambitions. More to the point, the United States has not agreed to another deal like the one Obama inked. It's really just the same ceasefire again, with the hopes that Iran follows through... this time.

I would argue that long term, this is a big nothingburger. It punts the major issues down the road with both sides giving up their biggest leverage points. What we need to question right now was whether or not the decision to blockade the Iranian ports was done solely in reaction to Iran shutting down the strait or if that blockade was also designed to put enough pressure on Iran to agree to give up their nuclear capabilities. Obviously, if the strait reopens that will be a big boon to the world economy, and an even bigger specific economic boon to Iran. It is a win-win, but should we really be conceding any wins to Iran at this point?

The real issue here is that Iran believes that as the election nears, that they are going to be in a stronger political bargaining position. Another 60 days brings us 60 days closer to the election and blows pasts the Administrations fourth of July deadline of moving full scale into campaign mode for the midterms. I would have preferred a six-month pause. See how everyone plays together and whether or not Iran is serious about giving up their nuclear weapons with a possible reengagement of the war after the midterms, when there would be little or no political pressure. In the back of their mind, one has to wonder if Trump, Hegseth, Rubio, Vance and gang are not considering the possibility of giving the Iranians enough rope to hang themselves and come back after the midterms to actually finish the job without any immediate political consequences.

Lastly, the usual Iranian suspects are already demanding that they have not and will not give up control of strait, making me wonder out loud if once again we are negotiating with the wrong people. Are the people with the guns once again being excluded to everyone's detriment? What are the chances that Iranian leadership will tell everyone that the strait is open for business, provide clearance for ships to pass, only to have these ships attacked by rogue IRGC soldiers who are still fighting the war. This happened the last time Iran agreed to reopen the strait; is there any reason to believe this will be different? If that is the case, then we are literally back to where we were at before this weekend.