2024 horse race update

Trump still ahead in real terms and well ahead of 2020 polling

One thing to keep in mind here is that Trump beat Hillary Clinton even as he lost the popular vote by over two points and still almost won in 2020 losing the popular vote by four points.

If you take the states where Donald Trump is leading by outside of the margin of error then he has 283 electoral college votes which is 13 more than he needs. He also leads by a smaller margin in Wisconsin (10 electoral college votes) and is running even in Pennsylvania (19 electoral college votes).

To the degree that he is running well ahead of 2020 in the popular vote, he was down even more in many of these states. In Michigan for instance according to RCP Trump is currently leading by 3.6% while he was down 4.7% in 2020 and down 9.6% in 2016. He won Michigan in 2016 and lost by just under 3% in 2020. But is currently polling over 14 points higher than in 2016 and 8 points higher than he previously did in 2020. So let's consider that he overperformed the polls in both elections, especially in the battleground states.

Obviously a lot can change between now and November. But they would have to change rather drastically at this point to believe that Biden is going to be the favorite.